This analysis was built by an AI system that transcribed a phone call, logged into CBS Sports, extracted 14 brackets from screenshots, scraped 28+ expert predictions from across the internet, pulled live Vegas odds, and synthesized it all into a consensus model — in one session.
Gene asked a simple question: "Based on the AI, who has the best bracket?"
Here's the answer.
Sweet 16 Predictions
| Matchup | Consensus Favorite | Expert % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Duke vs (5) St. John's | Duke | 70% | Duke -6.5 |
| (2) UConn vs (3) Michigan St | Michigan St | 55% | UConn -1.5 |
| (1) Arizona vs (4) Arkansas | Arizona | 85% | Arizona -7.5 |
| (2) Purdue vs (11) Texas | Purdue | 88% | Purdue -7.5 |
| (4) Nebraska vs (9) Iowa | Nebraska | 65% | Nebraska -1.5 |
| (2) Houston vs (3) Illinois | Houston | 70% | Houston -3.5 |
| (1) Michigan vs (4) Alabama | Michigan | 95% | Michigan -10 |
| (2) Iowa St vs (6) Tennessee | Iowa St | 58% | Iowa St -4.5 |
Consensus Final Four
| Region | Most Likely | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| East | Duke | 45% |
| West | Arizona | 70% |
| South | Houston | 45% |
| Midwest | Michigan | 65% |
Championship Odds
| Team | Vegas Odds | Expert Champion Picks |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | +300 (22%) | 2 experts |
| Arizona | +325 (20%) | 10+ experts |
| Duke | +410 (15%) | 3 experts |
| Houston | +750 (10%) | 2 experts |
| Illinois | +1400 (6%) | — |
| Iowa State | +1400 (5%) | 1 expert |
The expert favorite is Arizona. The Vegas favorite is Michigan. The smart money is on one of those two cutting down the nets.
The Rankings
Each bracket is scored on how well it aligns with expert consensus and Vegas probabilities. Higher score = better alignment with what the collective intelligence of sports media and oddsmakers predicts.
Scoring weights: Final Four picks (probability × 10), Championship game participants (probability × 20), Champion pick (probability × 40). Eliminated teams receive point deductions.
Bob's BBQ Power Rankings
| Rank | Player | Score | Champion Pick | Final Four |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kent Kirmaci | 44.5 | Arizona | Duke, Arizona, Houston, Michigan |
| 2 | James Duffy | 44.5 | Arizona | Duke, Arizona, Houston, Michigan |
| 3 | Dick Dudley | 42.4 | Michigan | Duke, Arizona, Nebraska, Michigan |
| 4 | Ira Daniel | 41.5 | Arizona | Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Iowa St |
| 5 | William Lyne | 40.8 | Arizona | Duke, Arizona, Nebraska, Michigan |
| 6 | Matthew Stone | 40.1 | Michigan | Duke, Arkansas, Houston, Michigan |
| 7 | Mike Turner | 35.0 | Arizona | Duke, Arizona, Florida ❌, Michigan |
| 8 | Naki Fangrupo | 33.8 | Duke | Duke, Arizona, Florida ❌, Michigan |
| 9 | Geno S | 33.8 | Duke | Duke, Arizona, Florida ❌, Michigan |
| 10 | Matt McClintock | 33.4 | Arizona | Michigan St, Arizona, Nebraska, Michigan |
| 11 | Ryan Tabloff | 29.6 | Illinois | Duke, Arizona, Nebraska, Michigan |
| 12 | James Auler | 29.4 | Illinois | Duke, Arizona, Florida ❌, Michigan |
| 13 | Chris Carothers | 13.9 | Arizona | Tennessee, Wisconsin ❌, Florida ❌, Michigan |
| 14 | Jacob Harker | -11.0 | Florida ❌ | Duke, Arizona, Florida ❌, Michigan |
❌ = eliminated team
Key Takeaways
🏆 Kent Kirmaci and James Duffy are co-leaders. Their Final Four of Duke / Arizona / Houston / Michigan is the exact consensus Final Four picked by the plurality of experts. Combined with Arizona as champion (the expert favorite), they have the brackets best positioned for a deep run.
📈 Dick Dudley is the dark horse. His Michigan champion pick is actually the Vegas favorite at +300. If Michigan wins it all, Dudley jumps to #1.
💀 Florida killed 6 brackets. Six of 14 players picked Florida in their Final Four. Iowa's upset of the defending champs was the league's biggest bracket-buster. Jacob Harker, who picked Florida to win the whole thing, is mathematically eliminated from contention.
🎯 The league loves Arizona. 8 of 14 players picked Arizona as champion — which aligns with expert sentiment (most-picked champion across all outlets) but slightly conflicts with Vegas (where Michigan is the betting favorite).
⚠️ The Illinois contrarians. James Auler and Ryan Tabloff both picked Illinois as champion. At +1400 odds (6% implied probability), this is a longshot — but Illinois faces Houston in the Sweet 16, and a win there would vault them into legitimate contender status.
How This Was Built
This analysis was produced by Kenny Liu's AI system in a single working session:
- Transcription — A phone call was transcribed using OpenAI Whisper to capture the original request
- Data Extraction — 14 bracket screenshots were analyzed using AI vision to extract every player's picks
- Expert Research — Three parallel AI agents scraped predictions from CBS Sports, ESPN, USA Today, Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, SB Nation, and On3
- Vegas Integration — Current spreads, moneylines, and championship futures were pulled from FanDuel, BetMGM, and Kalshi
- Synthesis — A consensus probability model was built from 28+ expert predictions and Vegas odds, then each league bracket was scored against it
Total expert predictions analyzed: 28+ named experts across 8 outlets, plus ESPN's 60-analyst aggregate poll.
Analysis by Kenny Liu — kennyliu.io
Powered by the Atlas AI system — Claude, Hermes, and a lot of web scraping.
Data as of March 26, 2026. Sweet 16 begins today.
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